Price Equity Research

Menu

Breadth Record—PER Long Term U.S.

Chart: Breadth Record-PER Long Term U.S.1937-Present

Identify Pending Bull & Bear Markets (declines) with precision or a 1.00 statistical correlation in time and price.

Price Equity Research’s Long Term U.S. Breadth Barometer was developed with the mindset that the tape has to precisely signify turns in the equity cycle before they occur. In other words, the world might possibly be round while others believe it to be flat. It was not developed with the original intention of seeking a model for actionable trading profit, but actionable portfolio risk management in knowing what side of the tape to be focused upon (long or short). The statistical precision of the PER Long Term U.S. Breadth Barometer allows the possibility for both the former and latter.

Price Equity Research’s Long Term U.S. Breadth Barometer signification occurs through a very specific relationship process involving breadth (price, volume, advancing/declining issues and new 52 week highs or lows). Since the 1930’s earliest compiled data, all bull and bear markets (including crashes i.e. 1987) have been signified before they occur (refer to the above chart).

Every cycle is dynamic in nature. However, every cycle has the same bull breadth or same bear market breadth relationships that signify the actual cycle beginning or ending. How important is the significance of the Price Equity Research’s Long Term U.S. Breadth Barometer in cycle percentage return terms and time precision? See the statistics below:

TITLE PER BAROMETER* S&P 500
*PER LT U.S. Breadth Barometer % returns and S&P 500 % returns are based upon total S&P 500 points captured from beginning cycle low to following cycle low.
TOTAL RETURN SINCE 1937 1615.02% 603.55%
AVG RETURN over 36 cycle periods 44.86% 16.77%
AVG RETURN over BULL PERIODS 56.26% 75.67%
AVG RETURN over DECLINE (BEAR) PERIODS 18.38% -28.30%
ANNUALIZED TOTAL RETURN 22.43% 8.38%

PER LT U.S. Breadth Barometer Price Statistics Since 1937:

Mean % Difference From Actual S&P 500 Natural Cycle Lows 7.82%
% Difference From Actual S&P 500 Natural Cycle Lows (Correlation) 0.9994
Mean % Difference From Actual S&P 500 Natural Cycle Highs 5.45%
% Difference From Actual S&P 500 Natural Cycle Highs (Correlation) 0.9989

PER LT U.S. Breadth Barometer Time Statistics Since 1937:

Mean Time From Actual S&P 500 Natural Cycle Lows (.50 Week After)
Time From Actual S&P 500 Natural Cycle Lows Since (Correlation) 0.9999
Mean Time From Actual S&P 500 Natural Cycle Highs (6 Weeks After)
Time From Actual S&P 500 Natural Cycle Highs (Correlation) 0.9998

Profit from both Bear Markets (declines) and Bull Markets and precisely identify them before they occur through PER Interactive™ an online and interactive breadth research platform.

In addition to our proprietary breadth research, we also use other proprietary models for defining shorter term price swings and their movements.

To learn more about PER Interactive™, please select from the following:

Become an Individual Member Become an Institutional Member